Looking ahead to the 15th Five-Year Plan: Focusing on industry-specific growth opportunities.

The following article is sourced from Li Huihui. , by Li Huihui

Li Huihui .

Click to follow and stay updated on global economic, financial, and capital strategies. Li Huihui, multiple entities. Independent director at Fortune 500 companies and publicly listed enterprises; expert partner at several private equity funds; Professor of Management Practice at emlyon Business School in France. Previously held senior executive positions at international and domestic banks including Citibank, Overseas-Chinese Banking Corporation, and Hengfeng Bank. Holds a Master’s degree from the University of Cambridge in the UK, a Master’s degree from Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, and a dual Bachelor’s degree from Peking University.

About the Author

Li Huihui, Chief Economist at Zeshi Consulting, Adjunct Associate Professor at the China Business School of the University of Hong Kong, Professor of Management Practice at EM Lyon Business School in France, Independent Director of numerous Fortune 500 and publicly listed companies, Expert Partner at several private equity funds, former senior executive at the president level in international and domestic banks including Citibank, Overseas Chinese Bank, and Hengfeng Bank, and former Senior Advisor on Strategic Restructuring at GF Bank and SPD Bank.

Original Title: “Huihui’s Perspective: Looking Ahead” “The 15th Five-Year Plan: Focusing on Opportunities in Industry Sectors”

Introduction

The “15th Five-Year Plan” (2026–2030) is not merely a continuation; rather, it represents a shift from... From “factors + real estate” to “technology + institutions + human capital” the structural transition period. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, scheduled to be held this week, is widely seen as... The launch timing for the top-level design of the “15th Five-Year Plan” (2026–2030). Before the plan is officially released. , author’s fund company research team Rolling tracking and scenario analysis have been conducted, and the following has been provided: Policy-Oriented Forecast and Industry Track Assessment for the Next Five Years : Stabilize expectations through interval-based growth, and... “Debt resolution—fiscal restructuring—people-driven demand” to stabilize domestic demand; “new-quality productivity—green energy—digital infrastructure” to strengthen supply; and enhance resource allocation efficiency through institutional openness and high-quality development of capital markets. All the following judgments are: Forward-looking assessment It serves both as a mechanism for policy to manage uncertainty and as the origin point for capital and enterprises to formulate their five-year strategies.

One 、 Growth anchor range

The author tends to believe that, The 15th Five-Year Plan will steer actual GDP growth toward... A range of 4.3% to 4.6% (with a median of 4.5%) and cooperate with CPI (inflation rate) of about 2% The “reasonable price range” serves as a reference. This is not... Win the numbers ”, but rather three things: Leave room for flexibility in reform, allow localities to explore diversification, and set consistent expectations for the market. Meanwhile, allowing nominal growth to moderately rebound is tantamount to injecting fresh blood into the cash flow and balance sheets of enterprises and local governments, thereby reducing... The phenomenon of the real economy becoming increasingly strained under low nominal conditions.

Two 、 Debt Resolution and Fiscal Policy

The author places greater emphasis on “How to repay” rather than “How much to repay.” The main thread of debt resolution will most likely be:
First, Extend the debt maturity, lower the interest rate, and ensure accurate accounting. 。 By means of substitution and refinancing, alleviate the mismatch between short-term debt and long-term investments as well as cash flow discrepancies; adopt a unified reporting standard to disclose debt information. “See the light.”
Second, Full-caliber supervision + Project revenue constraints 。 Integrate government debt, implicit debt, and platform operational debt into a single dashboard, and strictly prohibit... “Use insurance to manage” and “use land as collateral.”
Third, Central-Local Shared Responsibility Re-allocation 。 The authority over matters of people’s livelihood should be appropriately transferred upward, while fiscal authority should be appropriately devolved downward. Moreover, the weighting of the resident population should be increased within the administrative system below the provincial level, thereby avoiding... The gap in public services characterized by “people arriving but funds not yet arriving.” My assessment is that performance evaluations will become linked to the provision of basic public services, and debt resolution and social safety nets will no longer be treated as separate issues.

Three — The Main Thread of Domestic Demand

For the “15th Five-Year Plan,” the author would prefer to summarize the focus on the demand side in one sentence: Give families money, services, and certainty. Along the path ahead, childcare subsidies, free one-year pre-school education, inclusive early childhood care and education, and long-term care services will transition from pilot programs to institutionalization, thereby forming... A stable combination of “cash subsidies + public services + tax and fee optimization”; the trade-in program for durable goods will continue to be promoted, but it will be bundled with green standards and financial tools (installment plans, leasing, and post-warranty services). The author’s core argument: The recovery of consumption relies on predictable income and supportive social services, rather than short-term stimulus measures.

Four 、 Supply and New-Form Productivity

The author estimates that the slogan will turn into a checklist:

1.    Technical List — Advanced computing power (general/intelligent computing, liquid-cooled DC systems, optical interconnects), industrial software and control software (including the EDA ecosystem), power semiconductors and advanced packaging, long-duration energy storage and hydrogen energy materials;

2.    Scene List — The low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, marine engineering, and “AI+manufacturing”—all are subject to stringent constraints imposed by engineering milestones and safety compliance.

3.    Standard List — Energy efficiency, safety, connectivity, and data governance: By “using standards to drive convergence and using standards to promote excellence,” we’ll accelerate the elimination of inefficiencies and facilitate upgrades.

The keyword for the next stage is: The integration of “network—latency—energy consumption—green power.” The eight major hubs and ten key clusters should be closely linked with green-power consumption, electricity reform, and the data-factor market. DC power supply, liquid cooling, and optical interconnects will become decisive factors in determining the cost per unit of computing power and latency. Author’s viewpoint: Computing power will be managed as a public good infrastructure. , this is both a way to reduce The premise of the AI cost curve will also reshape regional industrial layouts and digital governance approaches.

Five 、 Green energy

The milestone for installed capacity of wind and solar power has been passed; the next competitive edge lies in system efficiency. The author anticipates the emergence of three key institutional developments:

1.    Capacity Pricing and Ancillary Services Pricing — Clearly quantify the measurable benefits of long-duration energy storage, pumped hydro storage, and flexible coal power plant upgrades;

2.    "Direct Purchase of Green Electricity + Green Certificates + Carbon Pricing" — Turn enterprises’ zero-carbon needs into financeable long-term contracts;

3.    Distribution Network and Inter-Regional Channel Investment — Establish a closed-loop “source-grid-load-storage” system on the park side to reduce wind and solar power curtailment and localized congestion.

The author’s judgment is: the entire machine. —Energy storage—power electronics—operation and maintenance services will move toward “more balanced chain-wide revenue,” no longer allowing only the upstream players to reap all the benefits.

Six 、 Real estate

The author does not endorse restarting the high-leverage cycle through price incentives. A more realistic sequence is: Ensuring building delivery creates a closed-loop funding system. (Node Acceptance) +Dedicated account supervision), Increase the proportion of existing-home sales. 、 Improve affordable housing and urban village redevelopment. 、 Normalize the rhythm of land reserves and land supply. In terms of the tax system, Moderately shift from the trading side to the holding side in a balanced manner. Place the public attributes of housing ahead of its asset attributes. In this way, real estate will no longer weigh down finance and expectations, but instead will return to... Infrastructure for Urban Competitiveness 。

seven 、 Foreign trade

The author believes that foreign trade will continue to exert strong momentum on both ends:
First, Stabilize the intermediate goods network ： Relying on the rules of origin accumulation + Localized support services to deepen our presence in the RCEP and Belt and Road markets, and optimize the “local procurement—regional manufacturing—global distribution” value chain.
Secondly, Upgrade institutional openness : Foreign investment access in the manufacturing sector has been... “Zero-COVID”—the next step is more likely to involve reducing the negative list in service sectors such as telecommunications, the internet, education, and healthcare, and promoting mutual recognition of rules. The export structure will also shift toward intermediate goods, green technologies, and digital equipment, moving away from the old approach of “trading low prices for market share.”

Eight 、 Capital market

The author focuses more on three key approaches:
First, Strengthen direct financing and mergers & acquisitions. : To put “Anti-involution” is now focused on mergers and acquisitions, restructuring, and standard clearance—while maintaining ownership neutrality.
Second, Severely punish information asymmetry and financial fraud. Delisting and dividend constraints are becoming the new norm, and valuation anchors are shifting back to cash flow.
Third, Cultivating Long-Term Capital and REITs Ensure that livelihood infrastructure and urban renewal yield measurable, long-term returns, encouraging private capital to enter—and enter steadily.

The author’s intuitive judgment: The market structure of the 15th Five-Year Plan is closer to... “Healthy Cow” But just... “Slow rise + differentiation” The cow, not... “Pulsed” cattle.

Conclusion: Five-Year Track and Industry Allocation

A. Semiconductors and Advanced Packaging The author predicts that the main trend over the next five years will focus on power devices. IGBT/SiC and advanced packaging (Chiplet/2.5D/3D)—AI training and inference are driving high bandwidth and low power consumption toward the packaging level. Domestic equipment, materials, and EDA tools can now be mass-produced at mature and mid-to-high-end process nodes.

B. AI+ Applications : More focused on cash flow realization, the author tends to believe that... “AI entering factories, networks, and systems” will be realized first—take, for example, industrial vision + motion control + digital twins. Edge inference will address low latency and cost constraints, while AIGC will reduce customer acquisition and labor costs in overseas marketing, customer service, and R&D collaboration.

C. Healthcare and Greater Health Logic is When “genuine demand + payment pathways + supply efficiency” all come together simultaneously, medical devices and high-value consumables under the normalized framework of centralized procurement will increasingly shift toward domestic substitution plus service-oriented models. The integration of healthcare and elderly care, along with the expansion of long-term care insurance, will gain momentum. For innovative drugs, the focus will be on replicable strategies that bridge globally—combining domestic clinical trials with overseas registration and business development. Digital healthcare will initially target chronic diseases and rehabilitation services.

D. East Data, West Computing × Smart Manufacturing The author’s pre-calculated computing power will be governed as a public good and deeply integrated with green electricity, electricity market reform, and the circulation of data elements. Liquid-cooled DC and optical interconnects are becoming the core drivers for cost reduction. At the manufacturing end, the key focus lies in the seamless integration of software and hardware—combining industrial OS, MES, and SCADA with PLCs, drive controls, and machine vision—enabling edge AI control to truly enter production lines.

E. Long-term Energy Storage and the Power System Structure : Industry from “Installation-driven momentum” is shifting toward “sustainable cash flow”: revenues will be structured around a three-pronged model—capacity pricing, ancillary services, and the spot market. Energy storage will be deployed on both the grid side and the industrial park side, with pumped hydro storage, flow batteries, and sodium-ion/solid-state technologies each finding their respective roles. Virtual power plants are moving toward marketization.

F. Low-altitude economy ： Low-altitude economy according to The advancement of “Airworthiness—Flight Services—Low-Altitude Intelligent Connectivity” hinges on safety redundancy and energy density, which will determine the commercial ceiling for eVTOLs. Fine-grained airspace management and charging mechanisms will dictate the network’s scalability. Commercial spaceflight is shifting from launch-centric operations toward a closed-loop system integrating “constellations + ground infrastructure + applications,” where inter-satellite laser links and SAR systems increasingly resemble “data businesses.”

G. Marine Engineering and the Green Maritime Chain: Offshore wind power, submarine cables, and marine engineering equipment are expanding in tandem along the equipment—EPC—operations and maintenance—service chain. Regional manufacturing plus local services for new energy vehicles, energy storage, and photovoltaics will become the new norm.